I suppose you could call it a return to form. After yesterday where I came out of the session with a small loss, today saw many of the same setups and management ideas turn a very tidy profit. The sample size of trades for the week is still relatively small but the edge is already coming through as it usually will even if you start out with a small string of less than stellar trading outcomes.
A competent trader knows that this shift into profitability is going to happen over and over again which is why it's not worth worrying too much about the outcome of a single trade or even a single day. Sure, if you start to string lots of poor trades or days together then it makes sense to really dig into the data and adapt accordingly but if the sample is small then you just need to be confident in your trading edge and having the patience, discipline and skill to see it through.
A Little Bit of Luck?
As I talked about in yesterday's trading journal, a bit of luck still plays a part in trading no matter what, at least in smaller samples of trades. Even though I liked the way the deck was stacked yesterday I didn't really get the luck of the draw and things didn't play out my way. Today they did.
I managed to catch a good momentum trade right off the open which is always a bit more dangerous than other times. It could have snapped back quickly but it didn't. It stopped its pullback creating an opportunity to get and board and worked out for a great run.
I also made a play on the second long (third trade) that I've been testing for a while but that rarely takes off quite like this. I was pretty much content with just taking ~2.5 points on the trade but bulls rushed in so strongly that I adapted accordingly and managed to take it for what is typically my max profit target of +5 points.
It wasn't greed - the market essentially made the decision for me and forced my hand. I'm fine with giving away a bit of that control. The market is always right, after all.
Were those outcomes just a bit of luck? Maybe. On another day perhaps those trades don't quite play out the same way and I take a bit less profit or miss out but if I take those same setups over and over the expectancy is positive and substantial. That's really all that matters.
Keeping Things Simple
This was still a day that offered lots of opportunity even without those more aggressive plays including the contextual trap which goes outside the normal scope of my core Samurai system. I called it a day early as I was happy with how I had traded and I felt it was time for a break from the screens but if I kept trading there were more straight-forward momentum shorts available that would have given some points as well.
Over time a full time trader develops intuition and the confidence to trust in it thanks to years of work and study but you don't necessarily have to go "off the board" in order to make things work.
You can keep things repeatable, structured and simple and can find consistency through that. In fact, that's exactly what a trader should be doing if consistent profitability is the goal.
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